Despite recent indications of a recession being all but "inevitable" within the next 1-2 years, the legal hiring market remains very strong. If you're a BigLaw associate who has been considering a lateral move for a variety of a reasons, you might think now is the wrong time. "What if the recession hits shortly after I start? Won't I be at risk of losing my job as the 'new associate'?"
When it comes to hiring practices, nobody has a perfect crystal ball. But when it comes to your long-term career planning, there are lots of reasons to think of a lateral move now (or soon), before the recession hits.
Here are 3 key reasons:
If a firm has an associate opening, it means they are busy and you will get the billable hours that you need to make your mark. Since the 2008 financial crisis, firms have been much more careful when it comes to hiring lateral legal talent. When somebody leaves a practice group as an associate, this associate will not automatically be replaced. The firm may see the move as the result of natural attrition. Or the departing associate consistently did not meet their billable hour targets, so instead of a new hire, their workload/hours is distributed amongst existing associates. In today's economy, when a firm posts an associate lateral need, this means there is work to do and they need the help. More often than not, this means the person that they hire will hit the ground running and will be likely to hit their billable hour targets each year. This is good news for a new lateral associate. It will be easier to demonstrate value to the practice group and firm when (and still if) a recession comes and workflow slows.
Your current practice group or firm may not be ready for the recession. Conversely, you may be working at a firm where it's been consistently difficult to hit the firm's annual billable hours targets. Maybe a key partner in your practice group left. Or maybe the workflow for your firm's clients in that practice has just slowed. This is not a good situation to be in during the time of a recession. You want to be at a firm in a practice that has work for you to do. Additionally, if you're working at a firm that's had some management issues or inconsistent profits per partner growth, then the firm as a whole may not be recession-ready. (This was famously the case with my former law firm Dewey & LeBoeuf, which ultimately folded when it could not pay its expenses and debts when the financial crisis hit.)
If you're looking to relocate, do it now when most firms are willing to interview out-of-market talent and pay for relocation and bar expenses. Right now, there are tons of open junior and midlevel corporate positions at law firms in markets like the Bay Area and Boston. Because the need is so high and there is a limited pool of talent in these markets, firms are more than willing to look to other markets such as New York for talent to fill the openings. These firms are also willing to pay the additional costs that come from an out-of-market move - specifically relocation expenses as well as reimbursement and time off to take a new state bar exam. If the market slows, firms won't do this as much. So if you're a New York-barred attorney looking to get home to the Bay Area, you might have to figure out a way to take the California bar on your own time and on your own dime (all while keeping your existing job since it's always better to look for a job while you still have one.)
A good recruiter will talk you through the pros and cons of making a lateral move right now, giving you an understanding of the opportunities that are out there and whether you're the right fit. But no matter what, it's worth starting the conversation now. You don't want to wait to a point when legal hiring for lateral positions starts to slow down.